CURRENCY TRADING BY SIGMAFOREX: 2009

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Unlocking the Forex broker selection confusion | SigmaForex

It is not your imagination. Selecting a Forex broker is a complex process, and it is important enough that it can either make or break your chances for a successful Forex experience. Our goal is to highlight what makes this decision important and offer some key tips to making a good selection.

Forex Datasource estimates that there are approximately 100 medium or large Forex brokers in the world today, each of them with unique features. The rate of new brokers has decreased considerably, though. The retail Forex market is maturing a bit. New regulation and tough broker competition force new brokers to come up with a lot of capital upfront to have a chance to survive the first year of business.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Oil slumps below $43 with USA stocks on the rise

Oil tumbles below $43 per barrel on pessimism over global economy and growing US inventories

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices tumbled more than 7 percent Wednesday as U.S. inventories swelled with surplus crude and traders started to doubt whether OPEC would cut production further.
Benchmark crude for April delivery fell $3.38 to settle at $42.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Energy Information Administration said crude supplies in the U.S. climbed unexpectedly by 700,000 barrels for the week ended March 6. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., expected a drop of 1 million barrels.
Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, said the most disturbing part of the report was that national demand for distillate fuel oil dropped by 6.1 percent. Distillate fuel includes diesel fuel used by trucking companies, miners and manufacturers.

"That's an ugly number," Kloza said. "You're not seeing commercial goods moved around the country like a year ago. And we were in a recession a year ago."
Meanwhile, investors are coming to believe that OPEC may not cut production when it meets Sunday in Vienna. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has already announced output quota reductions of 4.2 million barrels a day, and some analysts had expected the 12-member group would slash daily production by another 500,000 barrels.
But oil officials from Saudi Arabia have said recently that they'll focus instead on making sure OPEC members are in compliance with the previous cuts. Saudi Arabia may not be interested in trimming production more if other countries won't do the same, analyst Phil Flynn said.
Before OPEC meets, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu plans to contact the group's ministers and try to convince them to avoid any new production cuts. If crude gets more expensive, it "could have a real impact in hurting the world economy," Chu told reporters Wednesday after a Senate hearing.
With another production cut in doubt, many traders are dropping their bids in preparation for an International Energy Agency report on Friday. The IEA report is expected to say that global demand has fallen more than was previously thought, said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.
"I thought the OPEC cuts would have had more of an effect by now," Lynch said. "Clearly, the recession is overwhelming OPECs efforts."
Oil prices had been rebounding from a low of $33.98 a barrel in February as U.S. crude inventories dropped and investors started to gain confidence that OPEC's cuts would effectively balance falling global demand.
As oil grew to almost $50 a barrel, analyst and trader Stephen Schork said many investors started thinking about cashing in. The bearish crude inventory report helped them make that decision, Schork said.

"As usual, we've been buying on rumor and now we're selling on fact," Schork said.
Investors also were presented another batch of gloomy economic news Wednesday.
Chinese oil imports have dropped 13 percent in the first two months of the year, and are now at their lowest level in more than two years, analyst Addison Armstrong said. Chinese manufacturers are struggling, with exports plunging 25.7 percent year-over-year in February, Armstrong said.
Automobile sales also are plunging around the world, according to Vienna's JBC Energy said. "In February, U.S. passenger car sales dropped by 39 percent year-on-year, while sales in Europe also fell sharply," JBC Energy said in a research note.
The U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday that California, South Carolina, Michigan and Rhode Island registered double-digit unemployment rates in January. The national average unemployment rate was 8.1 percent in February, the highest in more than 25 years.
Elsewhere, Staples Inc. said Wednesday its fourth-quarter profit dropped 14 percent, though the results were related to last summer's acquisition of a Dutch rival dragged down results. Staples added that shoppers are spending less on computers, accessories and furniture. Sales fell 13 percent at stores in North America that were open at least a year, the company said.
Department store owner Neiman Marcus Inc. said it lost $509.3 million in the second quarter on a series of hefty write-downs totaling more than half a billion dollars.
And teen-focused American Eagle Outfitters Inc. said its fourth-quarter profit dropped 77 percent because of unplanned markdowns during the weak holiday season and a charge related to the declining value of some investment securities.
Gas prices dipped less than a penny to a national average of $1.938 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Pump prices are up 1.4 cents a gallon from a month ago, but they're $1.289 a gallon cheaper than last year.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery fell 4.6 cents to settle at $1.2512 a gallon, while heating oil slipped 6.56 cents to settle at $1.1331 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery fell 4.2 cents to settle at $3.798 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Brent prices settled where they began at $43.96 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

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RI tax cut proposals raise questions in recession

Tax cuts are centerpiece of RI gov's budget, but skeptics question timing amid recession

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (AP) -- Tax cuts of up to $115 million annually for individuals and businesses are the centerpiece of Gov. Don Carcieri's latest budget, which attempts to trim ballooning deficits as a recession drives Rhode Island into the red.
While Carcieri argues reducing taxes will bring new jobs and investment to a state suffering from 10.3 percent unemployment, about a quarter of the 420,000 state residents who file tax returns would see a tax increase. Skeptics question whether the state can afford the resulting loss of income.
Several of Carcieri's major proposals would not take effect until days before the term-limited governor leaves office and, in one case, years afterward.
"It's a very small impact and it certainly doesn't generate enough revenue to not impact state budgets," said Michael Mazerov, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center on Budget Policy and Priorities. He was a member of a panel that Carcieri assembled to review the state's tax code but dissented with its conclusions that Rhode Island must lower its taxes to be more competitive with neighboring states.
Businesses consider other factors beside taxes when deciding whether to move to or expand in a state, Mazerov said. He said business leaders may view Rhode Island less favorably if the tax cuts mean less public support for schools, child care or transportation.

In his proposal, Carcieri adopts many of the panel's suggestions. He wants to lower the state's top personal income tax rate from 9.9 percent to 5.5 percent starting in 2011. Estimates show about a quarter of residents will face a larger tax bill because the state would change its tax brackets, no longer offering lower capital-gains tax rates and ending some tax credits.
Residents would also be able to inherit estates worth up to $1 million, instead of the current $675,000, before owing state taxes starting next year under Carcieri's plan.
His largest proposal is reducing the state's corporate income tax from 9 percent to 7.5 percent starting next year, then annually reducing that tax until it is replaced by a much-cheaper system in 2014. Eliminating the tax would cost the state $82 million annually, or about 2 percent of the funds the state expected to raise this year.
"That would make an enormous statement to the rest of the nation, to the region, that Rhode Island is serious about growing businesses, keeping businesses that are here growing and not leaving, and attracting other businesses," Carcieri said at a news conference Tuesday.
As a recession reduces tax revenue, only a handful of governors are considering similar proposals. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has proposed cutting the state's business income tax in half over six years, from 9.8 percent to 4.8 percent. In South Carolina, Gov. Mark Sanford supports phasing out the corporate income tax and offering an optional flat income tax for individuals.
John Simmons, executive director of the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council, a business-backed group that monitors state spending, said the cuts will be affordable because Carcieri is phasing them in gradually.
If the state economy deteriorates further, lawmakers could always delay or scale back some of the tax changes, said Simmons, a member of Carcieri's tax panel.
The success of the Republican governor's plan remains uncertain. Democrats hold a veto-proof majority in the General Assembly, and their leaders are worried about a continued decline in state revenue.
Carcieri must leave office after finishing his second term in January 2011. As a result, he will not see through several of his proposals, even if lawmakers approve them. He would leave office just days after a drop in personal income tax rates and years before the elimination of the corporate income tax.

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Former governor running NM office for federal aid

Former New Mexico Gov. Anaya to run office overseeing state's share of federal stimulus money

SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) -- Former Gov. Toney Anaya is returning to state government to run a new office that will oversee the spending of federal economic stimulus money flowing to New Mexico.
The state expects to receive about $1.8 billion in federal money over the next two years, and the state is preparing to use part of the money to start six highway construction projects worth $106 million.
Gov. Bill Richardson announced on Wednesday that Anaya will lead the Office of Recovery and Reinvestment. He described Anaya as "one of New Mexico's most distinguished citizens." Anaya, a Santa Fe Democrat, served as governor in 1983-86.

High-ranking staff from state agencies have been assigned to the office, which will make certain New Mexico complies with extensive federal guidelines for spending the federal aid and assist the state and local governments in seeking grant money. At least $80 billion nationally will be allocated through competitive grants.
The state is launching a Web site to offer information to the public, local governments and other groups on the federal money available to New Mexico and how it will be spent. Richardson encouraged citizens to use the Web site to send suggestions on projects that can be financed with the federal assistance.
The largest share of federal money will go to health and human services -- almost $630 million, with much of that for Medicaid, which provides health care for the poor and uninsured children.

Nearly $590 million will flow to educational programs, including for special education and helping schools with a high percentage of students from low-income families. New Mexico already plans to use part of the educational money to pay for public school operations next year.
About $250 million is available for transportation, including state and local highway projects, and $175 million is for commodity and nutrition assistance programs, such as food stamps.
Richardson said the federal money will help create jobs and avoid cutbacks in some state programs, such as in public schools and Medicaid. But he emphasized New Mexico still faced serious budget problems in coming years. State revenues have dropped as the economy deteriorated and oil and natural gas prices plummeted.
"All of us must keep in mind that next year is going to require prudence in our budgeting because these are one-time moneys," Richardson said.
When the federal aid runs out, New Mexico will have to use state tax dollars to cover some of the programs -- such as schools -- that are financed with the economic stimulus money.
"The recovery package is not a panacea or a solution for our budget or economic problems," said Richardson. "It will help us but we have a tough row ahead."

Anaya said, "We can't squander this opportunity."
The federal economic stimulus plan "offers a daunting challenge for state government but it also offers a once-in-a-lifetime chance to institutionalize some structural changes, to develop the infrastructure of the future and take additional steps toward ... redesigning our economy for the 21st century," Anaya said.

Anaya will work for the state under a contract paying him $35,000 through June, with an additional $5,000 set aside for any travel that's required of him, according to Pahl Shipley, a spokesman for the governor.
The Legislature will not formally appropriate the federal money, unlike what happens with state tax dollars. Part of the federal aid flows automatically to programs based on current formulas, such as Medicaid and so-called Title I money for schools. But there's discretion in what projects are financed with block grant money and other assistance, such as money for "green infrastructure" and projects to improve energy efficiency and water conservation.
Richardson said the administration is working with the Legislature to ensure that legislators have a voice in making recommendations for use of the federal money. For example, a budget bill moving through the Legislature is based on the use of $165 million in federal money for public schools next year.

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BP to pay environmental penalty at Texas City: EPA

BP Plc agreed to pay $785,662 to settle alleged violations of U.S. environmental regulations at its Texas City, Texas, refinery, the federal Environmental Protection Agency said on Monday.
BP will pay a civil penalty of $420,662 for failure to complete and submit toxic chemical release reports between 2002 and 2005 and failure to maintain records for 2004.

BP will pay $365,000 to upgrade Texas City's ability to respond to chemical releases. The money will go to purchase an ambulance, upgrade the city computer system, communications equipment, emergency operations center and mobile command post.
On March 23, 2005, an explosion at the refinery killed 15 workers and injured 180 other people

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Sunday, March 8, 2009

European stocks

Stocks on Wall Street and in Europe retreated sharply Friday as the U.S. government reported the economy had shrunk more quickly than expected in the last quarter and said it will take a larger stake in Citigroup.

At the opening, Wall Street fell, with the Dow Jones industrial average dropping 105 points, or 1.9 percent, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index down declining 2.31 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq down about 1 percent.
In midafternoon trading in Europe, major market indexes were down by more than 3 percent, with the DAX in Germany falling nearly 4 percent.

Deutsche Telekom raised its profit forecast for this year and reported a 2008 profit that was not as bad as expected. Its full-year net profit soared to €1.48 billion from €571 million in 2007. But there was little other positive corporate news in Europe on Friday, a day after a report saying that German unemployment rose for the fourth straight month to 7.9 percent.
"There was a lack of impulse from German companies," said Steffen Neumann, strategist at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg. "There was fear that the bad news would continue, and finally it came."

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Inflation Target

'We're seeing now in some countries emergence of spreads in all market segments.'
'The challenges we have is keeping up the success in the fall out of the crisis.'
'In reaction to the crisis, monetary policy has reacted quite swiftly and also fiscal policy.'

ON FISCAL MEASURES
'In the fiscal arena, we know very well that a confidence inspiring reaction, increasing the deficits...needs rules and procedures.'
'It depends on the same time on the credibility that once the crisis has been dealt with you can move back towards sustainable budget levels.'

DIFFERENTIALS
'We do still have differentials in output growth and inflation performance. Part of this is of a temporary nature, however, different than in other monetary unions, like the United States, there are some differentials that are quite persistent.'

JOAQUIN ALMUNIA

ON CHALLENGES TO MONETARY UNION
'This is the most difficult period we have known in our lives and the debate surrounding the monetary union centres on the great opportunities and enormous challenges'.
'The challenges that have arisen in many areas for the Europeans, and the European economy in particular, are demanding. But if we act in a coordinated manner we have the ability continue with this success for our economies and our societies.'

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Pound plunge

Half of the people planning to go abroad on holiday this year will avoid the eurozone because of the fall in the value of the pound, according to foreign exchange bureau Travelex. Top destinations include Egypt, South Africa, Turkey and the US.
Two-thirds of holidaymakers say they are also looking for ways to save money on their trips abroad.

Choosing a country where currency rates are attractive will make your money stretch further. Securing a good exchange rate in advance - rather than waiting until you are abroad - can be another means of helping to keep costs down.
The pound has plummeted in value against the euro in the last year. Someone changing £500 on Friday would have received 546 euros. This compares with 603 euros six months ago and 650 euros at this time last year.

In contrast, the Turkish lira and South African rand remain good value. For example, £500 would have bought 6,947 rand on Friday.
Six months ago it would have purchased 6,780 rand. On Friday, £500 was equivalent-to 1,159 Turkish lira - compared with 1,111 lira a year ago.

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FOMC action

The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1-1/2 percent. The Committee took this action in light of evidence pointing to a weakening of economic activity and a reduction in inflationary pressures.
Incoming economic data suggest that the pace of economic activity has slowed markedly in recent months. Moreover, the intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit. Inflation has been high, but the Committee believes that the decline in energy and other commodity prices and the weaker prospects for economic activity have reduced the upside risks to inflation.

The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the request submitted by the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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